The explosion of prediction markets has been one of the biggest stories of the midterms. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow in popularity, their role in elections – from their function as possible live polls to candidates trading on themselves – has drawn scrutiny. 

The Deseret News spoke with multiple experts to learn more, including Richard Warr, finance professor and associate dean for faculty and research at Poole College. Warr regularly provides commentary on prediction markets, and lent his expertise to the Utah-based newspaper.

Warr says that “prediction markets basically allow us to have that kind of information right up until the election is called.” He further noted that the “constant trading” gives “fresher price updates,” which might make the markets more accurate than some polls.

As such, he predicts that “Opinion polls are probably going to go away, and my guess, you know, we’re just going to rely on prediction markets, for better or for worse.”

Warr acknowledges that the “big criticism that comes from politicians really across the board” is that the markets can be manipulated, and that might affect voting patterns if someone’s preferred candidate is ahead or behind and become “a self-fulfilling prophecy.” That said, manipulation is difficult, given the sheer volume of betting and money poured into the platforms. “That’s kind of the beauty of it,” he says. “That particularly when the volumes get pretty big, it’s really, really hard for anybody to manipulate those markets.”

Read his full thoughts on deseret.com.