{"id":33891,"date":"2025-06-13T14:12:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T18:12:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/?page_id=33891"},"modified":"2026-05-04T11:18:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T15:18:30","slug":"outsmarting-viral-outbreaks","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/outsmarting-viral-outbreaks\/","title":{"rendered":"Outsmarting Viral Outbreaks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n<p><em>Editor&#8217;s Note: This is the latest in a series from the Poole College of Management that taps experts from across NC State to explore societal issues through the lens of risk management. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk Meets Reality<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>From global pandemics like COVID-19 to fast-moving plant viruses that threaten food supplies, infectious diseases are emerging and evolving at a pace that challenges current systems of response.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-fancy-paragraph-fifty is-text wp-block-ncst-fancy-paragraph\">\n      \n<div class=\"text-only wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n\n<p>Research from global health agencies and agricultural experts points to a clear trend: environmental changes, global trade and urbanization are increasing the chances of outbreaks across regions and sectors. These biological risks don\u2019t just affect health \u2014 they can disrupt entire industries, strain economies and impact everyday life.<\/p>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n<blockquote class=\"has-custombg-one-text-color wp-block-ncst-fp-quote\">\n    <div class=\"fp-quote-container\">\n      <p class=\"fp-quote__content\">&#8220;When do the stars align in a way that leads to another COVID pandemic?&#8221;<\/p>\n      <div class=\"fp-quote__attribution-container\">\n        <div class=\"attribution-title-name-container\">\n                      <p class=\"attribution-name\">Matt Koci<\/p>\n                                <p class=\"attribution-title\">Co-Director<br>Animal Health and Nutrition Consortium<\/p>\n                  <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/blockquote>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n    <\/div>\n  \n\n\n\n<p>As the world becomes more interconnected, organizations must think beyond traditional risk planning. Understanding how pathogens spread, and investing in early detection and cross-sector collaboration, will be essential to building resilience and protecting both human and environmental health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Risk Meets Reality: Outsmarting Viral Outbreaks\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JEiV6eFtSL4?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Mark Beasley, Alan T. Dickson Professor and Director of the Enterprise Risk Management Initiative at the Poole College of Management, recently interviewed NC State virologists Matt Koci and David Rasmussen about potential pathogen-related risks business leaders may want to monitor. In this video, they outline strategies and techniques business leaders can take to enhance organizational agility and resilience in the face of viral outbreaks.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Low Odds, High Impact<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The so-called \u201c100-year phenomena\u201d in viral epidemiology refers to the idea that pandemics tend to emerge roughly once every century \u2014 but experts caution that this pattern isn\u2019t based on a strict scientific timeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPandemics are paced out about every three or four generations, roughly 100 or so years,\u201d explains <a href=\"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/prestage-department-of-poultry-science\/people\/mdkoci\/\">Matt Koci<\/a>, professor of immunology, virology and host-pathogen interactions in <a href=\"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/\">the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS)<\/a> at NC State. \u201cBut it\u2019s less about specific time intervals, and more a reflection of just the low probability of viruses mutating in a way\u201d that enables them to spread widely among humans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/entomology-and-plant-pathology\/people\/drasmus\/\">David Rasmussen<\/a>, associate professor of entomology and plant pathology at CALS, offers a metaphor to illustrate the challenge of predicting pandemics, referring to the \u201cears of the hippo\u201d analogy: \u201cWhile it\u2019s hard to predict when a hippo will surface, what we do know for sure is that there\u2019s a whole lot of hippo biomass lurking underneath the water.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-fancy-paragraph-fifty is-text wp-block-ncst-fancy-paragraph\">\n      \n<div class=\"text-only wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n\n<p>The same holds true for viruses \u2014 countless strains exist below the surface, often unnoticed, but ready to emerge when conditions align.<\/p>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n<aside class=\"floated-spotlight-aside-container\">\n  <div class=\"floated-spotlight-contents\">\n    <a\n    class=\"ncst-content-card wp-block-ncst-fp-spotlight-card has-custombg-two-background-color with-image with-cta\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2026\/05\/Building-Organizational-Resilience-Preparing-to-Navigate-a-Potential-Viral-Outbreak-6102025-FINAL-1.docx\"\n  >\n  \n          <div class=\"content-card__image-container\">\n        <div class=\"content-card__image-background\">\n          <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1500\" height=\"844\"\n            class=\"content-card__image wp-image-33940\"\n            alt=\"\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/ERM-virology-tool-promo-image.png\"\n            style=\"aspect-ratio: 16\/9; object-fit: cover; \"\n srcset=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/ERM-virology-tool-promo-image.png 1500w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/ERM-virology-tool-promo-image-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/ERM-virology-tool-promo-image-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/ERM-virology-tool-promo-image-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n    <div class=\"content-card__text-container\">\n      \n                        <h3 class=\"content-card__headline\">Ask the Right Questions<\/h3>\n              \n\n              \n\t      \t        <p class=\"content-card__teaser\">The best time to prepare for disruptive pathogens is now. Our risk management tool guides the conversations to get you started. <\/p>\n\t      \t    \n              <p class=\"content-card__cta\"><span class=\"text\">Download the tool<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n          <\/div>\n\n  <\/a>\n  <\/div>\n<\/aside>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n    <\/div>\n  \n\n\n\n<p>These conditions include a virus\u2019s ability to mutate, jump from animal hosts to humans and then spread effectively between people. \u201cThis process requires multiple unlikely events to occur simultaneously,\u201d Koci notes, making pandemics rare but not random.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s changing, however, is the frequency of these conditions coming together. With climate change, deforestation, increased global travel and closer human-wildlife interaction, we may be entering an era where so-called \u201c100-year events\u201d could happen far more often.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Plant <strong>Pathogens in the Food Chain<\/strong>: Scarcity and Instability<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The human cost of plant pathogens goes far beyond the fields they infect. Rasmussen stresses this point with real-world examples, noting that plant viruses can deeply disrupt both local communities and global systems.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-fancy-paragraph-fifty is-text wp-block-ncst-fancy-paragraph\">\n      \n<div class=\"text-only wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n\n<p>In East Africa, cassava virus infections pose a major threat. Cassava is a staple crop for millions, and as Rasmussen explains, these viruses can compromise a primary source of calories and nutrition. \u201cWhen cassava fails, it\u2019s not just about losing a crop \u2014 it\u2019s about endangering food access for entire populations,\u201d he says. The damage can ripple through communities, leading to food shortages, malnutrition and economic strain.<\/p>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-fp-image\">\n  <figure class=\"fancy-paragraph__image-container fancy-paragraph__image-square\">\n          <img \n        decoding=\"async\"\n        class=\"fp-image wp-image-\"\n        src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/shutterstock_2184529981-scaled-e1749053156413.jpg\"\n         alt=\"Dark green leaves on a cassava plant with splotches of light green and yellow.\"               >\n         \n      <figcaption class=\"fancy-paragraph-image__caption\">Leaf discoloration is a sign of cassava mosaic disease.<\/figcaption>\n      <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n    <\/div>\n  \n\n\n\n<p>The impact hits closer to home in Florida, where the citrus industry has faced multiple outbreaks. Rasmussen points to the Citrus Tristeza virus in the late 1990s and early 2000s, followed by citrus greening disease, which has devastated orange groves across the state.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not just talking about a few trees getting sick,\u201d he explains. \u201cThese pathogens wiped out whole orchards, causing major losses for growers and ripple effects throughout the supply chain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those ripple effects are central to the concern. \u201cImagine if a major new pathogen emerged that affected wheat, rice or corn,\u201d says Koci. \u201cThe disruption to food production could create global economic instability \u2014 even political instability.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rasmussen adds that people should consider the foods they care about most: \u201cWhether that\u2019s their orange juice for breakfast, their coffee or chocolate, or even wine \u2014 plant pathogens could hit those industries hard.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rasmussen also cautions against overreacting \u2014 he emphasizes that the risk is real, even if not fully understood.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"layout-default has-three-fact wp-block-ncst-fact-list\">\n  <div class=\"ncst-fact-list__container\">\n      \n<a \n    class=\"ncst-fact has-custombg-four-text-color with-cta wp-block-ncst-inner-fact\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/bsppjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1364-3703.2007.00455.x\"\n          >\n      <span class=\"ncst-icon\">\n            <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M287.38,490.81V398.65a109.71,109.71,0,0,1-22.53-21.09A138.53,138.53,0,0,1,225.13,391v99.94L207.92,512H305l-17.41-21.09Z\"\/><path d=\"M511.1,289.71a51.19,51.19,0,0,0-35.53-48.94,77.51,77.51,0,0,0-37.78-133.11,56.83,56.83,0,0,0-90.51-68.19,67.17,67.17,0,0,0-119.49-5.63A94.71,94.71,0,0,0,85.67,156.71a56.91,56.91,0,0,0-39,46.17A56.93,56.93,0,0,0,34.88,310.8v1a41,41,0,0,0,69.43,30.71A134.54,134.54,0,0,0,268.13,366.2a104.86,104.86,0,0,0,166.49,3.68,41.19,41.19,0,0,0,65.63-48A51.19,51.19,0,0,0,511.1,289.71Z\"\/><\/svg>\n    <\/span>\n              <h2 class=\"fact__heading\">100 Million<br>Lost Trees<\/h2>\n            <p class=\"fact__support\">\n              Due to citrus tristeza virus\n          <\/p>\n        <p class=\"fact__cta\">\n      <span class=\"text\">Source<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span>\n    <\/p>\n    <\/a>\n\n\n<a \n    class=\"ncst-fact has-custombg-four-text-color with-cta wp-block-ncst-inner-fact\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/bsppjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1364-3703.2009.00559.x#b55\"\n          >\n      <span class=\"ncst-icon\">\n            <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M3.49688 14.7544L4.88625 14.6606L2.15625 10.5867L0 14.9461L1.485 14.8523C2.00852 16.7508 3.03842 18.4712 4.46448 19.8294C5.89053 21.1876 7.65905 22.1324 9.58078 22.5628L10.012 20.6466C8.5027 20.3267 7.10489 19.6131 5.9606 18.5783C4.8163 17.5434 3.96628 16.2241 3.49688 14.7544Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><path d=\"M14.7543 20.5031L14.6606 19.1138L10.5867 21.8438L14.946 24L14.8523 22.515C16.7537 21.9815 18.4748 20.9424 19.8326 19.5084C21.1903 18.0744 22.1338 16.2991 22.5628 14.3714L20.6465 13.9402C20.3275 15.4553 19.6149 16.8597 18.5805 18.0118C17.5461 19.164 16.2264 20.0232 14.7543 20.5031Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><path d=\"M20.5032 9.24563L19.1138 9.33938L21.8438 13.4133L24 9.05391L22.515 9.14766C21.9833 7.24034 20.9457 5.51231 19.5121 4.14653C18.0785 2.78076 16.3023 1.82808 14.3714 1.38937L13.9402 3.30562C15.4549 3.64244 16.8562 4.36699 18.0067 5.40827C19.1572 6.44956 20.0174 7.77186 20.5032 9.24563Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><path d=\"M9.24565 3.49688L9.3394 4.88625L13.4133 2.15625L9.05394 0L9.10081 1.485C7.20994 2.02349 5.49765 3.05823 4.14164 4.48182C2.78564 5.90541 1.83535 7.66597 1.3894 9.58078L3.30565 10.012C3.64365 8.50326 4.36933 7.10874 5.41103 5.96616C6.45274 4.82359 7.77445 3.97248 9.24565 3.49688Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><path d=\"M11.4015 18.7303H12.5031V17.4844C14.3715 17.4375 15.617 16.335 15.617 14.3709C15.6707 14.0288 15.6469 13.6791 15.5474 13.3474C15.4478 13.0157 15.2751 12.7106 15.0418 12.4547C14.5076 11.9539 13.869 11.5777 13.172 11.3531L12.549 11.1136V8.00016C13.3637 8.23969 13.6988 8.95828 13.7467 10.2502H15.4234V6.8025H13.7963V7.66453C13.486 7.21829 13.0279 6.89605 12.5031 6.75469V5.3175H11.4015V6.60938C9.48525 6.60938 8.2876 7.80703 8.2876 9.67547C8.2876 11.3517 9.34135 11.9747 10.7307 12.5016L11.4015 12.7889V16.0945C10.3473 15.855 10.0121 14.753 10.0121 13.6514H8.2876V17.2922H9.91603V16.2877C10.0606 16.5745 10.2703 16.8236 10.5282 17.0151C10.7861 17.2065 11.0851 17.3352 11.4015 17.3906V18.7303ZM12.5509 13.1719C12.8767 13.256 13.1639 13.4493 13.3644 13.7195C13.565 13.9898 13.6668 14.3206 13.6529 14.6569C13.6509 14.9783 13.5413 15.2898 13.3415 15.5416C13.1418 15.7935 12.8634 15.9711 12.5509 16.0463V13.1719ZM10.3009 9.29156C10.3017 9.10355 10.3403 8.91761 10.4144 8.74481C10.4884 8.572 10.5965 8.41585 10.7321 8.28562C10.9292 8.12714 11.1579 8.0127 11.4029 7.95V10.6613C10.7996 10.4227 10.2995 10.0402 10.2995 9.29344L10.3009 9.29156Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><\/svg>\n\n    <\/span>\n              <h2 class=\"fact__heading\">$2.3 Billion <br>Lost Revenue<\/h2>\n            <p class=\"fact__support\">\n              Due to cassava mosaic disease\n          <\/p>\n        <p class=\"fact__cta\">\n      <span class=\"text\">Source<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span>\n    <\/p>\n    <\/a>\n\n\n<a \n    class=\"ncst-fact has-custombg-four-text-color with-cta wp-block-ncst-inner-fact\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/edis.ifas.ufl.edu\/publication\/FE983\"\n          >\n      <span class=\"ncst-icon\">\n            <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6.08344 16.1644L8.20312 10.5075V5.46891H8.18484C8.09096 4.45175 7.62051 3.50634 6.86575 2.81803C6.11098 2.12973 5.12633 1.74817 4.10484 1.74817C3.08336 1.74817 2.09871 2.12973 1.34394 2.81803C0.589175 3.50634 0.118731 4.45175 0.0248437 5.46891H0V22.253H7.25016V17.1347H5.71875L6.08344 16.1644Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><path d=\"M21.7539 10.7597L15.2434 8.06531L8.86277 10.7597L6.74121 16.4161H7.95574V22.208H12.6817V16.9041H17.9856V22.208H22.6529V16.4161H24.0001L21.7539 10.7597ZM16.5001 13.9922H14.0739V11.5659H16.5001V13.9922Z\" fill=\"currentColor\" \/><\/svg>\n\n    <\/span>\n              <h2 class=\"fact__heading\">41% Lower <br>Annual Yield<\/h2>\n            <p class=\"fact__support\">\n              Due to citrus greening in Florida\n          <\/p>\n        <p class=\"fact__cta\">\n      <span class=\"text\">Source<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span>\n    <\/p>\n    <\/a>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Costs of Contagion<\/strong>: Lost Productivity and Food Shortages<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, the human toll of animal pathogens is both significant and wide-ranging, affecting not only public health but also economic stability and workplace productivity. Seasonal influenza alone <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nih.gov\/about-nih\/what-we-do\/nih-turning-discovery-into-health\/influenza#:~:text=Each%20year%20in%20the%20United,laid%20low%20by%20the%20flu.\">claims the lives of more than 36,000 Americans each year<\/a>, a toll that we tend to accept too easily, Koci says.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-fancy-paragraph-fifty is-text wp-block-ncst-fancy-paragraph\">\n      \n<div class=\"text-only wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n\n<p>Beyond mortality, the economic cost is staggering. <a href=\"https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC7169087\/\">Acute viral infections cost the U.S. economy over $100 billion annually, primarily through lost productivity<\/a>. Koci explains that this loss stems from a mix of factors: parents staying home to care for sick children, workers showing up ill and infecting colleagues, and the ripple effect of reduced workforce capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-fp-accompaniment\">\n    \n<div class=\"has-custombg-one-text-color wp-block-ncst-fp-fact\">\n  <div class=\"ncst-fact has-custombg-one-text-color\">\n    <div class=\"big-statistic\">\n      2.7M\n    <\/div>\n          <p class=\"fact__support\">\n                  Annual global deaths due to animal-derived pathogens<sup>1<\/sup>\n              <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n    <\/div>\n  \n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u201cPeople still come to work sick,\u201d Koci notes, pointing to a persistent workplace culture that rewards perseverance over public health. He adds that in jobs without paid sick leave, the pressure to work through illness often outweighs the risks of spreading infection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The biology of viral transmission further complicates the issue. Most viral infections are most contagious in the first two days \u2014 before symptoms peak \u2014 yet healthcare visits often happen after that window has closed. Ideally, Koci argues, a responsive system would offer rapid testing, similar to those provided during the COVID-19 pandemic, quick administration of antivirals and workplace support for early isolation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Animal pathogens also carry indirect consequences for human health. Koci recalls a poultry virus so severe in parts of the developing world that the World Health Organization lists it as a human health threat \u2014 not because it infects people directly, but because it devastates poultry populations, leading to protein shortages and widespread undernutrition.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-askew-media-text has-custombg-seven-background-color wp-block-ncst-mini-story\">\n    <div class=\"ncst-askew-media-text__container\">\n      \n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-text-column\">\n    <h2 class=\"ncst-text-column__heading\">Transforming Risk Into Opportunity<\/h2>\n    <p class=\"ncst-text-column__teaser\">Businesses, markets and the climate itself are changing faster than ever. NC State&#8217;s Enterprise Risk Management Initiative offers organizations the tools, methodologies and expertise to thrive in an endlessly evolving world. <\/p>\n          \n<div class=\"is-text wp-block-ncst-buttons\">\n    \n<div class=\"is-style-secondary wp-block-ncst-button\">\n      <a\n        class=\"ncst-block__button-link btn\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/erm.ncsu.edu\/\"\n        data-ncst-lightbox=\"false\"\n                      >\n                  <span class=\"text\">Learn how<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span>\n              <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  \n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n      <\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-media\">\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2024\/06\/ERM-RT1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2024\/06\/ERM-RT1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2024\/06\/ERM-RT1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2024\/06\/ERM-RT1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2024\/06\/ERM-RT1.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Staying Ahead of the Spread<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Surveillance and resilience in pathogen management are foundational to public health, yet they often go unnoticed \u2014 until a crisis hits. Rasmussen describes surveillance as \u201cincredibly non-flashy\u201d and even \u201cunsexy,\u201d largely because it requires consistent investment, doesn\u2019t produce headline-making discoveries and can seem invisible when it\u2019s working well. But, he says, this quiet work is absolutely essential to preventing outbreaks before they begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paradox of good surveillance, Koci points out, is that \u201cwhen it works, nothing happens.\u201d This makes it a tough sell for continued funding, especially in the absence of a visible threat. But that very invisibility \u2014 catching potential threats early and quietly \u2014 keeps communities safe and economies stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bird flu, particularly the H5N1 strain, remains a complex and evolving threat. First identified in the late 1990s, H5N1 hasn\u2019t developed the ability to spread efficiently from human to human. Still, the virus circulates widely in bird populations and has begun showing up&nbsp; in mammals, including wild animals and cattle across Europe and North America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The virus, Koci said, seems to be testing different hosts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While bird flu hasn\u2019t sparked a major human outbreak, its continued mutation and spread demand heightened vigilance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s \u201cnot if, but when and how the virus might eventually adapt to transmit efficiently between humans,\u201d Koci said.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"\" style=\"text-align: center\"><iframe style=\"width: 0;min-width: 100% !important;border: none\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NUg7R\/4\/\" height=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is evidence of the power pathogens have to disrupt everything: economies, supply chains, individual lives. It also yielded innovations to mitigate the effects of future pandemics, including scalable, cost-effective surveillance techniques. Rasmussen noted that wastewater surveillance, COVID-19 breakthrough, allows for population-wide monitoring of viral activity through sewage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vaccination is another critical pillar of resilience. Koci calls vaccines \u201cone of the most impactful inventions in human history,\u201d rivaled only by indoor plumbing in terms of lives saved.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond disease prevention, vaccines offer broader health benefits.&nbsp;The flu vaccine, for example, doesn\u2019t just reduce the likelihood of infection \u2014 it also shortens illness duration and lowers the risk of cardiovascular complications. Studies show that consistently getting the flu vaccine correlates with longer lifespans through reduced inflammation and stress on the body.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some vaccines provide unexpected protections. The measles vaccine, Koci explains, helps preserve immune memory cells. Without it, measles can \u201cwipe out\u201d these cells, leaving individuals vulnerable to other infections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, resilience depends on a multilayered strategy: proactive surveillance, accessible vaccines, innovative public health tools and a cultural shift in how society values prevention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The more surveillance you do, the more likely we are to learn how things might be starting to go off the rails, and be able to nudge it back and self-correct it pretty quickly,\u201d Koci said.<br><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-labeled-section wp-block-ncst-featured-content ncst-featured-content is-card-style layout-three-column\">\n  <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__background\">\n    <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__container\">\n               <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__header\">\n                      <h2 class=\"ncst-labeled-section__heading\">get to know our experts<\/h2>\n                            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__content\">\n        \n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-featured-content\"><a\n    class=\"ncst-content-card wp-block-ncst-content-card with-image with-cta\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/prestage-department-of-poultry-science\/people\/mdkoci\/\"\n  >\n  \n          <div class=\"content-card__image-container\">\n        <div class=\"content-card__image-background\">\n          <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1500\" height=\"844\"\n            class=\"content-card__image wp-image-33912\"\n            alt=\"\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/matt-koci-1500x844-1.jpg\"\n            style=\"aspect-ratio: 16\/9; object-fit: cover; \"\n srcset=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/matt-koci-1500x844-1.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/matt-koci-1500x844-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/matt-koci-1500x844-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/matt-koci-1500x844-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n    <div class=\"content-card__text-container\">\n      \n                        <h3 class=\"content-card__headline\">Matt Koci<\/h3>\n              \n\n              \n\t      \t        <p class=\"content-card__teaser\">Professor of Immunology, Virology and Host-Pathogen Interactions<br>Co-Director, Animal Health and Nutrition Consortium<br>College of Agriculture and Life Sciences<\/p>\n\t      \t    \n              <p class=\"content-card__cta\"><span class=\"text\">Read more<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n          <\/div>\n\n  <\/a>\n\n\n<a\n    class=\"ncst-content-card wp-block-ncst-content-card with-image with-cta\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/entomology-and-plant-pathology\/people\/drasmus\/\"\n  >\n  \n          <div class=\"content-card__image-container\">\n        <div class=\"content-card__image-background\">\n          <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"535\"\n            class=\"content-card__image wp-image-33894\"\n            alt=\"\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/Rasmussen-Photo-2-Edited-950x535-1.jpg\"\n            style=\"aspect-ratio: 16\/9; object-fit: cover; \"\n srcset=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/Rasmussen-Photo-2-Edited-950x535-1.jpg 950w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/Rasmussen-Photo-2-Edited-950x535-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/Rasmussen-Photo-2-Edited-950x535-1-768x433.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n    <div class=\"content-card__text-container\">\n      \n                        <h3 class=\"content-card__headline\">David Rasmussen<\/h3>\n              \n\n              \n\t      \t        <p class=\"content-card__teaser\">Associate Professor<br>Bioinformatics Research Center<br>College of Agriculture and Life Sciences<\/p>\n\t      \t    \n              <p class=\"content-card__cta\"><span class=\"text\">Read more<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n          <\/div>\n\n  <\/a>\n\n\n<a\n    class=\"ncst-content-card wp-block-ncst-content-card with-image with-cta\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/erm.ncsu.edu\/about\/erm-initiative-team\/mark-beasley\/\"\n  >\n  \n          <div class=\"content-card__image-container\">\n        <div class=\"content-card__image-background\">\n          <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1500\" height=\"844\"\n            class=\"content-card__image wp-image-33331\"\n            alt=\"Mark Beasley headshot\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/Mark-Beasley-1500x844-1.jpg\"\n            style=\"aspect-ratio: 16\/9; object-fit: cover; object-position: 50% 35%\"\n srcset=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/Mark-Beasley-1500x844-1.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/Mark-Beasley-1500x844-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/Mark-Beasley-1500x844-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/Mark-Beasley-1500x844-1-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n    <div class=\"content-card__text-container\">\n      \n                        <h3 class=\"content-card__headline\">Mark Beasley<\/h3>\n              \n\n              \n\t      \t        <p class=\"content-card__teaser\">Alan T. Dickson Distinguished Professor of Accounting<br>Director, Enterprise Risk Management Initiative<br><\/p>\n\t      \t    \n              <p class=\"content-card__cta\"><span class=\"text\">Read more<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n          <\/div>\n\n  <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n              <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-split-container wp-block-ncst-split-container\">\n    \n<div class=\"ncst-column wp-block-ncst-column\">\n    \n<div class=\"ncst-labeled-section wp-block-ncst-featured-callout ncst-featured-content\">\n  <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__background\">\n    <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__container\">\n               <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__header\">\n                      <h2 class=\"ncst-labeled-section__heading\">more risk insights<\/h2>\n                            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ncst-labeled-section__content\">\n        \n<a\n    class=\"ncst-content-card wp-block-ncst-content-card with-image with-cta\"\n    href=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/risk-meets-reality\/\"\n  >\n  \n          <div class=\"content-card__image-container\">\n        <div class=\"content-card__image-background\">\n          <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1500\" height=\"844\"\n            class=\"content-card__image wp-image-33289\"\n            alt=\"\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/PTL-extreme-weather.jpg\"\n            style=\"aspect-ratio: 16\/9; object-fit: cover; \"\n srcset=\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/PTL-extreme-weather.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/PTL-extreme-weather-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/PTL-extreme-weather-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/02\/PTL-extreme-weather-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n    <div class=\"content-card__text-container\">\n      \n                        <h3 class=\"content-card__headline\">Weathering Extreme Events<\/h3>\n              \n\n              \n\t      \t        <p class=\"content-card__teaser\">NC State experts share strategies for resilience as historic storms, heat and other weather events accelerate<\/p>\n\t      \t    \n              <p class=\"content-card__cta\"><span class=\"text\">Read more<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n          <\/div>\n\n  <\/a>\n\n\n              <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"ncst-column has-gray-100-background-color wp-block-ncst-column\">\n    \n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em><sup>1<\/sup>Grace D, Mutua F, Ochungo P, Kruska R, Jones K, Brierley L, Lapar L, Said M, Herrero M, Phuc PM, Thao NB, Akuku I and Ogutu F. 2012. <a href=\"https:\/\/cgspace.cgiar.org\/items\/c879acdd-6b11-4166-aa8d-48049783b453\">Mapping of poverty and likely zoonoses hotspots. <\/a>Zoonoses Project 4. Report to the UK Department for International Development. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editor&#8217;s Note: This is the latest in a series from the Poole College of Management that taps experts from across NC State to explore societal issues through the lens of risk management. Risk Meets Reality From global pandemics like COVID-19 to fast-moving plant viruses that threaten food supplies, infectious diseases are emerging and evolving at&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50146,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"views\/homepage.blade.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"source":"","ncst_custom_author":"","ncst_show_custom_author":false,"ncst_dynamicHeaderBlockName":"ncst\/floating-box-header","ncst_dynamicHeaderData":"{\"pageIntro\":\"Pathogens \u2014 in people, plants or animals \u2014 are increasingly frequent and difficult to predict.\",\"backgroundColor\":\"red_400\",\"boxPosition\":\"right\",\"ctaNum\":\"one\",\"useCTA\":false,\"focalPoint\":{\"x\":0.38,\"y\":0.42},\"imageURL\":\"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/423\/2025\/06\/PTL-erm-virology.jpg\",\"imageID\":33906,\"imageAlt\":\"Illustration of a spiky red virus molecule traveling along jagged plot line. To the right of the molecule (which is about 2\/3 of the way across), the plot line is red. To the left, it's green.\"}","ncst_content_audit_freq":"","ncst_content_audit_date":"","ncst_content_audit_display":false,"ncst_backToTopFlag":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-33891","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/33891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/50146"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33891"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/33891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35279,"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/33891\/revisions\/35279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poole.ncsu.edu\/thought-leadership\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}