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Steve Allen Provides Insight on Inflation, Recession as Local Businesses Prepare for Holiday Season

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The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday sales will grow between 3-4% this year, a rate similar to pre-pandemic levels. But hiring challenges have persisted, especially for small businesses, as unemployment rates remain low.

However, new jobless claims data shows the job market may be softening.

“Based on what’s going on right now, I think the odds of an actual recession seem pretty low. I would say, if anything, the odds of some modest decreases in interest rates in the coming year are starting to look pretty good,” said Steve Allen, economics professor in the Poole College of Management. “And that’ll be good for the stock market as well. People will start getting out of bonds and back into the market so there are some reasons to be optimistic.”

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